By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

No one in their right mind fights four wars on four separate fronts at the same time, three of them against nuclear-armed adversaries. But President Donald Trump doesn’t have a right mind.

He has delegated that to an under secretary of Defense named Elbridge Colby  and his business partner, Wess Mitchell.  They have repeatedly written decision memoranda for the President on sequencing his wars, one war, one front at a time, and transferring the risks, casualties, and costs of the warfighting to his allies – the Anglo-Europeans on the Ukraine battlefield,  and the Israelis on the battlefield against Iran. But Trump doesn’t read before he makes up his mind.

Instead, Trump has decided he can compel his allies to pay the price of his warfighting in their money and their blood, so he can afford to skip the sequencing, fight all his wars at once, and multiply the profits for himself. In Trump’s new declarations of war this week against Russia, India, and China, and the introduction of his new warfighting alliance with Pakistan against India, China and Iran simultaneously, this is what Trump thinks he is doing.

Calling it peacemaking, he has told the Norwegian government to make sure he wins this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.  

Colby and Mitchell don’t have enough of a business to make themselves targets in this new war. But the billionaire asset raiders and speculators who have been bailing out Trump’s insolvencies,  financing his election campaigns, and serving as his negotiators for the capitulation terms he aims at forcing, are now military targets – their companies, funds, trusts, homes, and cash balances, that is.  They are Steven Witkoff, the special negotiator for Gaza, Iran and Russia;  Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce;  Steven Feinberg, Pentagon Deputy Secretary; Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary; and Warren Stephens, US Ambassador to the UK. This is a turn-up for the books, their books, which they haven’t been anticipating. But then no one who isn’t in their right mind anticipates they will be defeated in warfighting by the likes of Russians, Indians, Chinese, or Iranians.

In this new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid,  we discuss the warfighting thresholds which have been crossed this week, starting with the reported operational deployment of the Russian S-400 air defence missile system in Iran, targeting Israeli and US aircraft.

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by Editor - Thursday, July 31st, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

During his long weekend in Scotland, President Donald Trump announced that nothing but the capitulation of both his allies and his adversaries will satisfy his MAGA and MEGA aims. Make America Great Again, Make the Empire Great Again come to the same thing: capitulation to Trump’s terms or die. Trump’s term for that is “total obliteration”.     

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, capitulated, and so did UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Both of them are playing for time — and paying heavily in new tribute   to the US:  5% of their GDP ($1.2 trillion) to expand their armies and refill the Ukrainian battlefield with US weapons; $750 billion in purchases of US oil and gas; $600 billion in European investments in US assets; $90 billion in tariff penalties to the US Treasury; and several hundred billion dollars, euros,  and pounds in money losses of domestic producers against duty-free US import dumping.

Trump has also dismissed all terms for ending the Ukraine war which President Vladimir Putin has presented, together with the ceasefire concessions he has made since their first telephone call on February 12.  

 “I’m — I’m not — you know, I’m not so interested in talking anymore,” Trump declared at the Turnberry golf club he owns on Monday. About Putin, “he’s a — he talks. We have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people die the following night in a — with a missile going into a town and hitting — I mean, recently I guess the nursing home, but they hit other things. Whatever they hit people die. So, I don’t — we’ll see what happens.”  

There have been no terms from Russia, Trump has claimed. “No, I haven’t gotten — I haven’t had any response.”  And so he has issued a new surrender ultimatum for Putin: “Ten days from today” – that’s August 8. “We’re going to put on tariffs and stuff, and I don’t know if it’s going to affect Russia because he wants to obviously probably keep the war going. But we’re going to put on tariffs and the various things that you put on. It may or may not affect them, but it could.”

Trump has followed with a declaration of sanctions war against India. “They have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD! INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. MAGA!”  

Trump followed this attack with a new pact for Pakistan, the enemy India defeated in the four-day Operation Sindoor in May.  According to Trump yesterday, “we have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!”  The concealed terms of the “deal” include the replacement of Chinese arms supplies to Pakistan with US substitutes,  and the sabotage of Chinese infrastructure projects.

As for the impact on US energy prices and economy-wide inflation from his campaign to stop Russia oil flowing to the international market, Trump has said: “I don’t worry about it. We have so much oil in our country. We’ll just step it up even further. I mean, oil is down pretty low right now. We’ll step it up even further.”  

This is braggadocio and vainglory. What it means is that Trump and his advisors and officials understand there is a new vulnerability for their MEGA war – that is the same combination of inflation and blood which during the Vietnam War resulted in the retreat of the US army and the defeat of the Democratic Party presidency of Lyndon Johnson. Trump is claiming he can escape oil price inflation and put the European and British militaries in the firing line with Russia. No US body bags.

Listen to Chris Cook’s latest Gorilla Radio broadcast in which the Gorilla spells out the fight-back strategy aimed at Trump’s soft underbelly.  

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by Editor - Thursday, July 31st, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

President Vladimir Putin has held three telephone calls with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this year so far.  What matters most now, after the third of these calls on July 28, is that Putin has omitted to put on the Kremlin record what he told Netanyahu – and what Netanyahu has just relayed to President Donald Trump that is Putin’s warning to them both.  

If the latest press leaks, calculated in Iran and possibly in India too, are correct, then Putin has crossed a warfighting threshold he has refused to cross before.

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by Editor - Thursday, July 31st, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Capitulation or obliteration:

The President of the European Commission and the British Prime Minister have just demonstrated to President Vladimir Putin that there are only two options in dealing with the US President, and negotiations aren’t one of them.

Read the verbatim record of what Trump told Putin during his press conference with Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday as he and President Ursula von der Leyen have chosen to capitulate themselves.   The video record can be viewed here.  

The record also reveals that Trump planted a reporter’s question so that he could publicly demand from Starmer his multi-million dollar golf course bribe – a 15-year imprisonment crime in US law:   

“Question: Mr. President, can we come to Turnberry, if I may? Have you or will you enlist the prime minister in your effort to bring the open back to Turnberry? And Prime Minister, you described this beautiful course. Do you agree with the president that it’s time to bring the Open back to Turnberry? 

Keir Starmer:  Well, as you know, that’s not a matter directly for me. That’s for the sporting authorities. But, look, I mean, it is absolute — the first time I’ve been here. It’s absolutely magnificent, both inside and out. And looking at the courses itself and the building, it’s — it’s incredible. But the decision on the Open is not a decision for me, as you’ll understand.”  

Trump was pressing because UK officials have been telling the London newspapers the Trump bribe is too expensive for them to pay. The British Open Golf championship had not been held at Turnberry since 2009, five years before Trump bought it,  a UK official told a newspaper in February, because the course “needed tens, or hundreds, of millions of pounds of investment to improve its accessibility by public transport and by road as well as improved hotel facilities.”   In April, Starmer’s subordinates were still trying. “The government is doing everything it can to get close to Trump. One concrete thing is that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have been involved in pushing for the Open to return to Trump-owned Turnberry.”  

Listen to the new discussion with Nima Alkhorshid in the new podcast on Wednesday afternoon, Moscow time.

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by Editor - Tuesday, July 29th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

President Donald Trump’s long weekend trip to Scotland wasn’t to meet King Charles III; that meeting has been set for mid-September.

He met the President of European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, not to negotiate trade terms but to announce the conclusion of what Trump called “probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity trade or beyond trade;”  also,  “the biggest deal. People don’t realize. This is bigger than any other deal. We have, uh, great countries, great countries. Uh, I’m familiar with many of ’em, so are you. And, uh, this is really the biggest deal. This is the, I guess we’re the biggest, uh, out there.”  

He also met British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The two hours he spent with each of them was less than the games of golf he played with his son Eric Trump, and with Warren Stephens, the US Ambassador to the UK since May and another of the asset speculators who have financed Trump’s re-election campaign.

Trump’s purpose in Scotland was to advertise the game of golf on the two resort courses he owns in Scotland  —  Turnberry in Ayrshire in the southwest, and in Aberdeen in the northeast.  “The golf was, uh, the golf was beautiful,” Trump told the press beside von der Leyen. “It’s, uh, golf can never be bad, even if you play badly, it’s, uh, it’s still good. If you had a bad day on the golf course, it’s okay. Uh, it’s better than other days”.  

That’s Trump’s game. But Trump’s golf business is in financial trouble within the Trump group of companies in the US; and in the financial accounts it is required to report to the UK Companies House.  

Advertising the value of the assets, as Trump’s game-playing visit has been planned to display, also exposes the financial vulnerability and invites rescue at a takeover premium. If the Trump plan is to pressure the British and Scots authorities into designating Turnberry for the British Open Championship; or if it is an advertisement to sell to an investor who has needs of his own from the US Government, then the scheme may amount to an offence under 18 U.S. Code § 201: “Whoever…being a public official or person selected to be a public official, directly or indirectly, corruptly demands, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to receive or accept anything of value personally or for any other person or entity, in return for: (A) being influenced in the performance of any official act.”   

That’s bribery.

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by Editor - Monday, July 28th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

No one in their right mind puts himself or herself in a zugzwang.

Zugzwang is the German word which has become  the name in all languages for the well-known position in politics, warfare, and games of chess which is the last one before capitulation.  Literally, it means “being forced to move”. Metaphorically, it refers to the situation when one adversary has placed his opponent in a position where he must make the next move, and whatever move he makes will be his defeat.

In his chess manual of 1777, François-André Philidor illustrated the position at the end of the game when White has played his king and queen into the position where Black, forced to make the next move, must separate his rook from his king and lose the game (lead image, left).

Right now, Zangezur, an Armenian word Զանգեզուր with geographical and historical meaning for a mountainous region of southeastern Armenia (lead image, right),  has been Armenian, Mongol, Turkic, Ottoman, Persian, and Russian over a very long past of sheep herding   and fighting.  Today it refers to a lowland transportation route for road and railway moving cargoes from east to west, north and south, and vice versa — the Zangezur Corridor.  Operation of this route and control of it by force of arms   pit the strategic interests of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Russia, China, United States,  US, France, India,  and others, against each other in several shifting combinations.

If the powers strategize these combinations to benefit their interests at the expense of the others, the only one in the zugzwang is Armenia and its current prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who has put himself there.

At dinner on July 19, President Donald Trump made a move to sweep everyone else’s pieces from the board, leaving the US with a victory in the game, and a new notch on his Nobel Peace Prize shooter. There were five, he said — and that was not counting the ceasefires Trump says he has notched publicly between Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, and the one he’s hoping for in September in Beijing — Russia and the Ukraine.   

Zangezur is now his, Trump claimed. “Armenia and Azerbaijan, we worked magic there. And, uh, it’s pretty close. If not, it’s already done.”  

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by Editor - Thursday, July 24th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul came and went in just one hour, and the Russian plan to continue the meeting on Thursday was dropped.  

A face-to-face meeting between the two delegation heads, Vladimir Medinsky for Russia, Rustem Umerov for the Ukraine, was held before the plenary session; it lasted for less than 30 minutes. They were then joined by the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan; the three talked for 15 minutes.  In Kiev it was officially denied that Umerov spoke with Medinsky before Fidan joined them.   Fidan then formally opened the session of the delegations, declaring “the ultimate goal of the negotiations in Istanbul is to reach a ceasefire for which Turkey has the necessary infrastructure to track compliance.” Between 7:51 pm and 9:39 pm the proceedings were open and shut.

For the Ukrainian side, Umerov read from a brief handwritten note that “we are ready for a ceasefire right now and for the start of substantive peace negotiations. It is up to both sides to agree to this fundamental step toward peace. The ceasefire must be genuine — it must include a complete halt to attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure. Real steps are possible, and each side must demonstrate a constructive and realistic approach.”  

More voluble in Kiev, Vladimir Zelensky posted a statement on Telegram reporting a fresh exchange of prisoners of war; he ignored the Istanbul outcome.    

The deadlock which the Russians had proposed to break with the “new idea, new concept” which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 10  was dismissed by the Ukrainian side. Instead, it was agreed, as Medinsky announced in his press conference, “to form three working groups that will work online”. The Ukrainians, he said,  agreed only to “consider this proposal.”  Umerov didn’t say so.

According to Fidan’s later statement, there was agreement to think about the working groups, but no agreement to start them. “The delegations also discussed possible steps to intensify technical discussions on the ceasefire and align their positions. They also agreed to explore the idea of establishing working groups on political, humanitarian, and military matters.”  

Manouvres there were; surprises there were not.

A Russian source comments; “So next contacts are downgraded to working groups so that’s the end of talks. Now guns, drones, and missiles will do the talking.”

In Washington there was no direct reaction. The White House is concentrating on Trump’s departure on Friday to meet King Charles III and Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland.  

At the same time, on Trump’s order Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), launched from the White House press room a series of accusations against both President Vladimir Putin and former President Barack Obama for plotting against the US.  “Putin’s principal interests”, according to Gabbard, “relating to the 2016 election were to undermine faith in the US democratic process, not showing any preference of a certain candidate. Putin chose not to leak the most damaging and compromising material on Hillary Clinton prior to the election; instead planning to release it after the election to weaken what Moscow viewed would be an inevitable Clinton presidency…The material about Hillary Clinton that Putin chose not to release before the election, included possible criminal acts.”  

Obama, she accused, of a conspiracy “to subvert the will of the American people…essentially…a years-long coup against President Trump.”

In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, the discussion focuses on the Russian goal to secure Trump’s agreement to a ceasefire for a single short-term objective – regime change in Kiev by  nationwide elections to replace Zelensky. The silence in Kiev and also in Washington, which has followed the session in Istanbul, confirms that Zelensky knows this and is reinforcing his power at home and abroad, in order to save himself.  

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by Editor - Thursday, July 24th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

In following up the last report,  new information has become available on the brain scanning which was conducted on Donald Trump on July 13, 2024, following an attempted assassination in Butler, Pennsylvania.

This is despite a comprehensive and long lasting blackout which began with the US Secret Service and other US government agencies then under President Joseph Biden, and also the Trump election campaign staff.

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by Editor - Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The Trump diagnosis is that the clinical symptoms of madness are accelerating. Ergo, time is short for the Kremlin to take advantage. Very short.

The Pearl Harbour problem is that the intelligence of the Japanese plan of attack on the US Navy fleet at Pearl Harbour in December 1941 was very obvious after the event – but dismissed in advance because the political pressure to interpret the intelligence and believe otherwise was too great. Ergo, the conviction President Vladimir Putin currently holds that Trump is capable of rational deal-making on terms for ending the Ukraine war if treated with courtesy and respect may be a misinterpretation. Depending on what happens next, a very large one.

The contradiction ought to be obvious between the first and the second in Russian warfighting strategy.

Equally obvious is the solution which Putin has favoured until now – delay.

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by Editor - Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The qutab is an exceptional meat pie in a world that’s full of meat pies.

That’s because it is the national meat pie of Azerbaijan, and because there is nothing quite like it outside the Azeri borders or culture.   

It is baked with a thin flatbread which is stuffed with heavily seasoned mincemeat of sheep, goat or beef.  You might call the combination of meats, onions, pomegranate syrup, herbs, and spices complicated if you weren’t persuaded how uniquely tasty it is.

It’s the same with the politics of Azerbaijan. They are not to be confused with the politics of Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Iran, and Georgia, Azerbaijan’s neighbours, just as there can be no mistaking the qutab for a pirog, gozleme, lahmajoun, kubdari, or لاهم بی آجین (lahm bi ajeen). Caution: if you are MAGA supporter, it would be your big mistake to call any of them a pizza.

Mistaking the superficial appearance of things for the reality is what sophomores do because they haven’t learned to know better. It’s what state propaganda organs and their spokesmen do because they are paid money and because information warfare is what politicians do to advance their interests. Repeating that the qutab or pirog is a pizza over and over will convince many  taste testers, according to the Big Lie doctrine of Adolph Hitler, Winston Churchill and their student, Joseph Goebbels.  

Forcing taste testers at the point of a gun or bribing them with money will also work to turn the Azeri and the Russian pies into an American pizza for a time; this is to speak literally as well as metaphorically. In Russia, that time was ten years long – the decade Boris Yeltsin was president.

Very recently, his successor President Vladimir Putin acknowledged publicly how long it has taken for him to learn. “I thought that the contradictions with the West were primarily ideological. It seemed logical at the time – Cold War inertia, different views of the world, values, the organization of society. But even when the ideology disappeared, when the Soviet Union ceased to exist, the same, almost routine deviation from Russia’s interests continued. And it was not because of ideas, but because of the pursuit of advantages – geopolitical, economic, strategic.”  

Right now the reality of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia isn’t how the propaganda, the force of arms, and the corruption of money are explaining it. To understand, click to listen to this discussion with Nima Alkhorshid, starting at Minute 42:30:   

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by Editor - Monday, July 21st, 2025
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