PUMPING IRON, PUMPING AIR — WHAT THE TRANSCONTAINER IPO REVEALS ABOUT THE VALUE OF THE RUSSIAN STATE GUARANTEE

By John Helmer, Moscow

When Transcontainer, the state rail company, started selling its shares in the form of global depositary receipts (GDR) on the London Stock Exchange on November 11, the price fixing was $80 per share, $8 per GDR.

“We are very pleased that the first IPO of a subsidiary of Russian Railways has been positively received by international investors’, said RZhD President Vladimir Yakunin (see image). ‘We view this as a strong gesture of their support for the ongoing reform of the Russian railway transportation sector. RZhD warmly welcomes new shareholders of Trans-Container and will continue to support Trans-Container’s business in Russia and abroad.”

But this isn’t what happened at all – and Yakunin, along with everyone else in the international market, knows it.
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THE NEW RUSSIAN ROULETTE — WHO WILL BE NAMED IN THE US GOVERNMENT CABLES ON RUSSIAN CORRUPTION? GENTS, PLACE YOUR BETS

By John Helmer, Moscow

According to the announcement from Wikileaks, and confirmed by the US State Department, next week there will be the public disclosure of approximately 2.8 million classified US cables and internal government reports identifying foreign government corruption and other criminality; and also what US-allied governments, such as the UK, Canada, Norway, and Australia, are doing to conceal it. The New York Times and the Guardian of London are preparing the materials for publication.
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THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS – HARRY POTTER IS THE ONLY FOREIGNER ALLOWED TO LOOK INSIDE (BUT THAT’S KIDSTUFF)

By John Helmer, Moscow

Deep inside the Russian government there is a chamber of secrets where officials have gathered just eight times since April 29, 2008, the day when then-President Vladimir Putin signed the law that created the chamber. The law was entitled “On Procedures for Foreign Investments in Business Entities of Strategic Importance for National Defence and State Security”; for short, Law № 57-FZ. The chamber is called the Government Commission for Control of Foreign Investment in the Russian Federation, the Control Commission for short (aka the Government Commission).
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GAZPROM REVEALS NIGERIAN NERVES, AS PIRATES STRIKE OFF LAGOS

By John Helmer, Moscow

Gazprom, Russia’s largest company and the world’s leading exporter of natural gas, says it will delay all investment spending in Nigeria at least until next year’s Nigerian presidential election result is decided, and new legislation enacted to secure foreign investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. The statement of Gazprom’s nervousness came just before Nigerian pirates attacked a Russian oil tanker off Lagos, injuring four seamen.
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VALLAR PICKS INDONESIAN OLIGARCH OVER RUSSIANS

By John Helmer, Moscow

After months of speculation that the recent Rothschild family flotation Vallar Plc would buy a Russian iron-ore or coalminer, Vallar has announced in London that instead it is buying an Indonesian steam coal group owned by Aburizal Bakrie (right image). Bakrie is described in the Financial Times as “arguably Indonesia’s most powerful businessman”.
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CHINESE GIVE DERIPASKA ANOTHER HAIRCUT

By John Helmer, Moscow

Oleg Deripaska’s electricity company, Eurosibenergo, is facing the loss of between 7% and 33% of its potential value in the Hong Kong market, as the banks running the attempt at a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange can find few sharebuyers who value the company above the range of $4 billion to $5.6 billion. The banks are Bank of China International, Russia’s state-controlled VTB, and Deutsche Bank.
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TOO MUCH LIQUID, TOO MUCH AIR – RUSSIA’S SANITARY CHIEF DEFLATED

By John Helmer, Moscow

The threat of a total ban on the multi-billion dollar frozen chicken trade to Russia, commencing January 1, has been dropped by the head of Russia’s Trade and Inspection Agency (Rospotrebnadzor, RPN), Gennady Onishchenko. Just as he gave no reason for threatening the ban a few days ago, Onishchenko has given no reason for changing his mind, when he announced it through the state news agency, RIA-Novosti, on Saturday.
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NODDY IN BIG TROUBLE IN GUINEA – MORDASHOV FACES GOLDMINE LICENCE REVOCATION

By John Helmer, Moscow

Nord Gold, the Russian mining company owned by Alexei Mordashov, has run into a grave new legal challenge to one of its most valuable gold-mining operations in the West African Republic of Guinea. The bad news comes after the unexplained failure of Mordashov’s company to confirm that it has been approved by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) to sell its shares on the London Stock Exchange.
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THE INDIANS ARE COMING! RUSSIAN DIAMOND CUTTERS TRY HALTING THE CHARGE (AND THE DISCOUNT)

By John Helmer, Moscow

Negotiations between Surat Rough Diamond Sourcing Ltd (SRDSIL), one of the largest cutters and polishers of diamonds in the world, are under way with Alrosa and the Russian state stockpile agency Gokhran. And just a few days after they began in Moscow, the Indian move has triggered an unusual domestic protest. In a statement issued publicly, the Russian diamond manufacturers have announced their concern that SRDSIL may cut into the domestic supplies which the Russians are counting on from the state stockpile.
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NUTTY-2 – HOW FAT, HOW THIN? USMANOV ISSUES METALLOINVEST CLAIMS WITHOUT AUDITED REPORTS

By John Helmer, Moscow

Metalloinvest, the steel and iron-ore holding controlled by Alisher Usmanov, has issued a press release summarizing what it claims are audited financial results for the six months to June 30. The good news has been timed, and also trimmed, to boost Usmanov’s attempt to find market demand and regulatory approval for an initial public offering; or for a takeover and reverse listing transaction with London-listed Vallar.
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GENERALOV RESCUES STATE RAIL COMPANY PRIVATIZATION

By John Helmer, Moscow

Sergei Generalov has once again proved to be the federal Transport Ministry’s Ninja, leaping out of his staid business-suit and spectacle disguise to toss his grappling-hook, and rescue the privatization of state-owned rail transport company, Transcontainer.
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RUSSIANS ENTER THE BIDDING FOR POTASH CORPORATION – TARGET IS THE BIG AUSTRALIAN, BUT CAN THE BEAR’S TUNE BE SWEETER TO CANADIAN EARS?

By John Helmer, Moscow

The Kremlin is thinking of bidding against Australia’s BHP Billiton (BHP) for control of Canada’s leading potash producer, Potash Corporation. But those promoting the bid in Moscow won’t say why they believe the Canadian government should agree to a takeover which the Russians admit they would ask Russia’s Control Commission for Foreign Investment to refuse, if the positions were reversed.
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THE MOHEL* COMES FOR OLEG DERIPASKA – EN+ AND STRIKEFORCE CAN’T BE SOLD IN HONG KONG – ATTEMPT TO LIST UTILITY EUROSIBENERGO INSTEAD

By John Helmer, Moscow

If you’re wandering in the desert, and there isn’t enough water to go around, you need to be able to tell your friends at the well from your foes. The ancient Hebrew tribes found that circumcising their members was a particularly reliable device. They didn’t have to punch the Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) toggle used in modern aircraft cockpits – they just pulled down their pants.
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FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV ASKS LOBBYIST TO PURSUE US VISA FOR OLEG DERIPASKA – CONTRADICTS RUSAL PROSPECTUS CLAIMS REGARDING DERIPASKA’S FREEDOM TO TRAVEL

By John Helmer, Moscow

US statutes require the registration of American agents who are acting for foreign companies or foreign individuals in an attempt to influence US legislation, political debate, or government decision-making in favour of their clients’ interests. Camouflage and concealment are unlawful, and can verge on espionage in the minds of some US prosecutors.

Lobbying is generally legal, so long as the lobbying activities themselves – letter-writing, meeting officials, donations to political campaigns, etc. — are registered and regularly reported to the Foreign Agents Registration unit (FARA) at the US Department of Justice in Washington.
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PROKHOROV PROPOSES NEW WORK REGIME FOR RUSSIANS

By John Helmer, Moscow

Does he or doesn’t he? Is S&M best practice in his management thinking — cutting-edge in the literal sense?

Mikhail Prokhorov has a funny way of answering questions about his tastes, and ingratiating himself with reporters at the same time. When interviewed recently by a special reporter for the New York Times – the Times editors were reluctant to commit one of their regular byliners to the job – Prokhorov showed how he is able to break a man’s leg in just three furtive moves.
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MRS CROESUS EXPLAINS THE REBARBATIVE QUALITIES OF POTASH – DMITRY RYBOLOVLEV LEARNS THE LESSON THAT SWITZERLAND IS RISKIER THAN RUSSIA FOR HIDING WEALTH FROM WOMEN

“One oligarch, One divorce, Two abysses”, Pierre-Alexandre Sallier, Le Temps, Geneva,
October 30, 2010 — translated from the French

In Geneva, the wife of Dmitri Rybolovlev demands half of his wealth of 12 thousand million Swiss francs ($12.1 billion)

Their separation plunges Swiss justice into the heart of the battle between the Kremlin and the king of the potash

This affair leaves two big holes, one in Cologny, the most upper-crust hill of Geneva, the other one in the Urals
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AND THEN THERE WERE NONE

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Agatha Christie’s whodunit entitled And Then There Were None – the concluding words of the children’s counting rhyme — is reputed to be the world’s best-selling mystery story.    

There’s no mystery now about the war of Europe and North America against Russia; it is the continuation of Germany’s war of 1939-45 and the war aims of the General Staff in Washington since 1943. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) and President Vladimir Putin (right) both said it plainly enough this week.

There is also no mystery in the decision-making in Moscow of the President and the Defense Minister, the General Staff, and the others; it is the continuation of the Stavka of 1941-45.  

Just because there is no mystery about this, it doesn’t follow that it should be reported publicly, debated in the State Duma, speculated and advertised by bloggers, podcasters, and twitterers.  In war what should not be said cannot be said. When the war ends, then there will be none.  

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RUSSIANS RAISE THEIR GLASSES – THE TOAST IS TO BEATING THE BLOCKADE OF MOSCOW



By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Alas and alack for the Berlin Blockade of 1948-49 (Berliner Luftbrücke): those were the days when the Germans waved their salutes against the unification of Germany demilitarised and denazified; and cheered instead for their alliance with the US and British armies to fight another seventy years of war in order to achieve what they and Adolf Hitler hadn’t managed, but which they now hope to achieve under  Olaf Scholtz — the defeat of the Russian Army and the destruction of Russia.

How little the Germans have changed.

But alas and alack — the Blockade now is the one they and the NATO armies aim to enforce against Russia. “We are drawing up a new National Security Strategy,” according to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “We are taking even the most severe scenarios seriously.”  By severe Baerbock means nuclear. The new German generation — she has also declared “now these grandparents, mothers, fathers and their children sit at the kitchen table and discuss rearmament.”  

So, for Russia to survive the continuation of this war, the Germans and their army must be fought and defeated again. That’s the toast of Russian people as they salute the intrepid flyers who are beating the Moscow Blockade.  

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THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY GOES TO WAR — GORILLA RADIO GOES NUCLEAR

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) board of governors voted to go to war with Russia by a vote of 26 member countries against 9.

China, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Senegal and South Africa voted against war with Russia.  

The IAEA Secretary-General Rafael Grossi (lead image, left) has refused to tell the press whether a simple majority of votes (18) or a super-majority of two-thirds (23) was required by the agency charter for the vote; he also wouldn’t say which countries voted for or against. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres then covered up for what had happened by telling the press: “I believe that [IAEA’s] independence that exists and must be preserved is essential. The IAEA cannot be the instrument of parties against other parties.” The IAEA vote for war made a liar of Guterres.

In the IAEA’s 65-year history, Resolution Number 58, the war vote of September 15, 2022,  is the first time the agency has taken one side in a war between member countries when nuclear reactors have either been attacked or threatened with attack. It is also the first time the IAEA has attacked one of its member states, Russia, when its military were attempting to protect and secure a nuclear reactor from attack by another member state, the Ukraine, and its war allies, the US, NATO and the European Union states. The vote followed the first-ever IAEA inspection of a nuclear reactor while it was under active artillery fire and troop assault.

There is a first time for everything but this is the end of the IAEA. On to the scrap heap of good intentions and international treaties, the IAEA is following the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and the UN Secretary-General himself.  Listen to this discussion of the past history when the IAEA responded quite differently following the Iranian and Israeli air-bombing attacks on the Iraqi nuclear reactor known as Osirak, and later, the attacks on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons sites.

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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY TAKES UKRAINE SIDE IN WAR IN SEPTEMBER 15 VOTE, MAKING UN SECRETARY-GENERAL GUTERRES EITHER A LIAR OR A FOOL

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) decided this week to take the side of Ukraine in the current war; blame Russia for the shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP); and issue a demand for Russia to surrender the plant to the Kiev regime “to regain full control over all nuclear facilities within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, including the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.”      

This is the most dramatic shift by the United Nations (UN) nuclear power regulator in the 65-year history of the organisation based in Vienna.

The terms of the IAEA Resolution Number 58, which were proposed early this week by the Polish and Canadian governors on the agency board, were known in advance by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres when he spoke by telephone with President Vladimir Putin in the late afternoon of September 14, before the vote was taken. Guterres did not reveal what he already knew would be the IAEA action the next day.  

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THE RUSSIAN SITUATION COMEDY IS NO LYING MATTER – THE JOKE IS ON THE OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Never mind that King Solomon said proverbially three thousand years ago, “a merry heart doeth good like a medicine.”  

With seven hundred wives and three hundred concubines, Solomon realized he was the inventor of the situation comedy. If not for the sitcom as his medicine, the bodily and psychological stress Old Solly had to endure in the bedroom would have killed him long before he made it to his death bed at eighty years of age,  after ruling his kingdom for forty of them.

After the British sitcom died in the 1990s, the subsequent stress has not only killed very large numbers of ordinary people. It has culminated today in a system of rule according to which a comic king in Buckingham Palace must now manage the first prime minister in Westminster  history to be her own joke.

Even the Norwegians, the unfunniest people in Europe, have acknowledged that the only way to attract the British as tourists, was to pay John Cleese of Monty Python and Fawlty Towers to make them laugh at Norway itself.   This has been a bigger success for the locals than for the visitors, boosting the fjord boatman’s life expectancy several years ahead of the British tourist’s.  

In fact, Norwegian scientists studying a sample of 54,000 of their countrymen have proved that spending the state budget on public health and social welfare will only work effectively if the population is laughing all the way to the grave. “The cognitive component of the sense of humour is positively associated with survival from mortality related to CVD [cardio-vascular disease] and infections in women and with infection-related mortality in men” – Norwegian doctors reported in 2016. Never mind the Viking English:  the Norwegian point is the same as Solomon’s that “a sense of humour is a health-protecting cognitive coping resource” – especially if you’ve got cancer.  

The Russians understand this better than the Norwegians or the British.  Laughter is an antidote to the war propaganda coming from abroad, as Lexus and Vovan have been demonstrating.   The Russian sitcom is also surviving in its classic form to match the best of the British sitcoms, all now dead – Fawlty Towers (d. 1975), Black Adder (d. 1989), You Rang M’Lord? (d. 1988), Jeeves and Wooster (d. 1990), Oh Dr Beeching! (d.1995), and Thin Blue Line (d. 1996).

The Russian situation comedies, alive and well on TV screens and internet streaming devices across the country, are also increasingly profitable business for their production and broadcast companies – not despite the war but because of it. This has transformed the Russian media industry’s calculation of profitability by removing US and European-made films and television series, as well as advertising revenues from Nestlé, PepsiCo, Mars, and Bayer. In their place powerful  Russian video-on-demand (VOD) streaming platform companies like Yandex (KinoPoisk), MTS (Kion),  Mail.ru (VK), and Ivi (Leonid Boguslavsky, ProfMedia, Baring Vostok)  are now intensifying the competition for audience with traditional television channels and film studios for domestic audiences.  The revenue base of the VOD platforms is less vulnerable to advertisers, more dependent on telecommunications subscriptions.

Russian script writers, cameramen, actors, designers, and directors are now in shorter supply than ever before, and earning more money.  “It’s the Russian New Wave,” claims Olga Filipuk, head of media content for Yandex, the powerful leader of the new film production platforms; its  controlling shareholder and chief executive were sanctioned last year.  

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RUSSIAN AVIATION INDUSTRY CORRECTS YELTSIN YAW – BOEING, AIRBUS DITCHED



By Olga Samofalova, translated and introduced by John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

It was the American humourist Mark Twain who didn’t die in 1897 when it was reported that he had. Twain had thirteen more lively years to go.

The death of the Russian aerospace and aviation industry in the present war is proving to be an even greater exaggeration – and the life to come will be much longer. From the Russian point of view, the death which the sanctions have inflicted is that of the US, European and British offensive against the Soviet-era industry which President Boris Yeltsin (lead image, left) and his advisers encouraged from 1991.

Since 2014, when the sanctions war began, the question of what Moscow would do when the supply of original aircraft components was first threatened, then prohibited, has been answered. The answer began at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 1947 when the first  Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) or Parts Manufacturing Approval (PMA) was issued by Washington officials for aircraft parts or components meeting the airworthiness standards but manufactured by sources which were not the original suppliers.   

China has been quicker to implement this practice; Chinese state and commercial enterprises have been producing PMA components for Boeing and Airbus aircraft in the Chinese airline fleets for many years.  The Russian Transport Ministry has followed suit; in its certification process and airworthiness regulations it has used the abbreviation RMA, Cyrillic for PMA. This process has been accelerating as the sanctions war has escalated.

So has the Russian process of replacing foreign imports entirely.

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FOR WANT OF A NAIL THE KINGDOM WAS LOST – ENGLISH PATHOLOGIST GUY RUTTY FACES CHALLENGE TO THE RELIABILITY OF HIS NOVICHOK EVIDENCE



By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The weakest link in the British government’s four-year long story of Russian Novichok assassination operations in the UK – prelude to the current war – is an English medical expert by the name of Guy Rutty (lead image, standing).

A government-appointed pathologist advising the Home Office, police, and county coroners, Rutty is the head of the East Midlands Forensic Pathology Unit in Leicester,  he is the author of a post-mortem report, dated November 29, 2018,  claiming that the only fatality in the history of the Novichok nerve agent (lead image, document), Dawn Sturgess, had died of Novichok poisoning on July 8, 2018. Rutty’s finding was added four months after initial post-mortem results and a coroner’s cremation certificate stopped short of confirming that Novichok had been the cause of her death.

Rutty’s Novichok finding was a state secret for more than two years. It was revealed publicly   by the second government coroner to investigate Sturgess’s death, Dame Heather Hallett, at a public hearing in London on March 30, 2021. In written evidence it was reported that “on 17th July 2018, Professor Guy Rutty MBE, a Home Office Registered Forensic Pathologist conducted an independent post-mortem examination. He was accompanied by Dr Phillip Lumb, also an independent Home Office Registered Forensic Pathologist. Professor Rutty’s Post-Mortem Report of 29th November 2018 records the cause of death as Ia Post cardiac arrest hypoxic brain injury and intracerebral haemorrhage; Ib Novichok toxicity.”  

Hallett, Rutty, Lumb, and others engaged by the government to work on the Novichok case have refused to answer questions about the post-mortem investigations which followed immediately after Sturgess’s death was reported at Salisbury District Hospital; and a cause of death report signed by the Wiltshire Country coroner David Ridley, when Sturgess’s body was released to her family for funeral and cremation on July 30, 2018.  

After another three years, Ridley was replaced as coroner in the case by Hallett in March 2021. Hallett was replaced by Lord Anthony Hughes (lead image, sitting) in March 2022.

The cause-of-death documents remain state secrets. “As you have no formal role in the inquest proceedings,” Hallett’s and Rutty’s spokesman Martin Smith said on May 17, 2021, “it would not be appropriate to provide you with the information that you have requested.” 

Since then official leaks have revealed that Rutty had been despatched by the Home Office in London to take charge of the Sturgess post-mortem, and Lumb ordered not to undertake an autopsy or draw conclusions on the cause of Sturgess’s death until Rutty arrived. Why? The sources are not saying whether the two forensic professors differed in their interpretation of the evidence; and if so, whether the published excerpt of Rutty’s report of Novichok poisoning is the full story.   

New developments in the official investigation of Sturgess’s death, now directed by Hughes, have removed the state secrecy cover for Rutty, Lumb, and other medical specialists who attended the post-mortem on July 17, 2018. The appointment by Hughes of a London lawyer, Adam Chapman, to represent Sergei and Yulia Skripal, opens these post-mortem documents to the Skripals, along with the cremation certificate, and related hospital, ambulance and laboratory records. Chapman’s role is “appropriate” – Smith’s term – for the Skripals to cross-examine Rutty and Lumb and add independent expert evidence.

Hughes’s appointment of another lawyer, Emilie Pottle (lead image, top left), to act on behalf of the three Russian military officers accused of the Novichok attack exposes this evidence to testing at the same forensic standard. According to Hughes,  it is Pottle’s “responsibility for ensuring that the inquiry takes all reasonable steps to test the  evidence connecting those Russian nationals to Ms Sturgess’s death.” Pottle’s responsibility is to  cross-examine Rutty and Lumb.

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KILLING IS CHEAPER — THE US ARMY SPECIAL OPERATIONS COMMAND WEAPONIZES TWITTER, FACEBOOK, INSTAGRAM, WHATSAPP, TELEGRAM

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The US Army’s Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has been firing several hundred million dollars’ worth of cyber warheads at Russian targets from its headquarters at MacDill Airforce Base in Florida. They have all been duds.

The weapons, the source, and their failure to strike effectively have been exposed in a new report, published on August 24, by the Cyber Policy Center of the Stanford Internet Observatory.  The title of the 54-page study is “Unheard Voice: Evaluating Five Years of Pro-Western Covert Influence Operations”.

“We believe”, the report concludes, “this activity represents the most extensive case of covert pro-Western IO [influence operations] on social media to be reviewed and analyzed by open-source researchers to date… the data also shows the limitations of using inauthentic tactics to generate engagement and build influence online. The vast majority of posts and tweets we reviewed received no more than a handful of likes or retweets, and only 19% of the covert assets we identified had more than 1,000 followers. The average tweet received 0.49 likes and 0.02 retweets.”

“Tellingly,” according to the Stanford report, “the two most followed assets in the data provided by Twitter were overt accounts that publicly declared a connection to the U.S. military.”

The report comes from a branch of Stanford University, and is funded by the Stanford Law School and the Spogli Institute for Institutional Studies, headed by Michael McFaul (lead image).   McFaul, once a US ambassador to Moscow, has been a career advocate of war against Russia. The new report exposes many of McFaul’s allegations to be crude fabrications and propaganda which the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has been paying contractors to fire at Russia for a decade.

Strangely, there is no mention in the report of the US Army, Pentagon, the Special Operations Command, or its principal cyberwar contractor, the Rendon Group.

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MARIA YUDINA OUT OF THE DARK – THE RUSSIAN CLASSICAL PIANIST PLAYS AGAIN

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Maria Yudina (lead image) is one of the great Russian pianists. She was not, however, one who appealed to all tastes in her lifetime, 1899 to 1970.

In a new biography of her by Elizabeth Wilson, Yudina’s belief that music represents Orthodox Christian faith is made out to be so heroic, the art of the piano is diminished — and Yudina’s reputation consigned again to minority and obscurity. Russian classical music and its performers, who have not recovered from the Yeltsin period and now from the renewal of the German-American war, deserve better than Wilson’s propaganda tune.

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