By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
“Sergei Victorovich”, President Vladimir Putin said behind his hand to his Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (lead image, left). “Do me a favour. When you’re talking to the Iranians, promise whatever they need to keep fighting and deter Trump. But keep it secret. And in public, waffle. Your job is to reassure the Americans we are powerless — you are powerless — I’m impotent.”
Just after lunch on Monday, Lavrov spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had initiated the call with urgency. The published Russian communiqué said: “The situation in the Persian Gulf zone, which was degraded by the United States and Israel, was discussed. Sergei Lavrov pointed to the categorical unacceptability of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which create unacceptable safety risks of Russian personnel and are fraught with catastrophic environmental consequences for all countries of the region without exception. Mutual concern was expressed about the dangerous spread of the conflict provoked by Washington and Tel Aviv to the Caspian Sea. The Russian side noted the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement, taking into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, primarily Iran. This position Russia will be guided by the UN Security Council. A.Araghchi thanked the Russian leadership for the significant diplomatic and other support provided to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the supply of humanitarian assistance.”
Araghchi has omitted to publish a record of what was really discussed.
“Pishka”, Putin said to Dmitry Peskov, his spokesman (centre). “When you’re asked questions about Iran, do me a favour — say nothing. Your job is to convince our people at home who vote for me that I know best, and that I won’t be getting them into more trouble than we already have.”
Peskov hadn’t eaten his lunch on Tuesday when local reporters asked him to clarify the President’s attitude towards the Israeli Air Force attack on the Iranian Caspian Sea port, Bandar Anzali, through which Iran and Russia run heavy-cargo ship deliveries in both directions, both civil and military. “As for these reports”,he said, “we haven’t seen them. To be honest, I don’t have any information on the matter.” Peskov was following Putin’s order, if clumsily, because what he said was an obvious lie.
Four days before, Lavrov’s spokesman had confirmed the Caspian port attack. “The US-Israeli coalition continues pouring fuel on the flames of the war they have unleashed in the Middle East, which could cause this war to spread even further. On March 18, a bomb attack was carried out against the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea. That major Caspian port is an important trade and logistics hub that is actively used in Russian-Iranian trade, including for food deliveries. The strike has affected the economic interests of Russia and the other Caspian states that maintain transport communications with Iran via that port. The regional countries and the international community have always regarded the Caspian Sea as a safe zone of peace and cooperation. The aggressors’ reckless and irresponsible actions pose a threat of dragging Caspian states into an armed conflict. We once again firmly call for the immediate cessation of hostilities and resuming efforts to achieve a political settlement of the situation in the Middle East, which is increasingly affecting neighbouring regions.”
In these private moments, deep behind the Kremlin wall, what Putin means to say is that Russia has now gone into recession, and the timing is very bad for the coming State Duma elections. Putin is asking his spokesmen to put up a smokescreen, an alibi for the difference between what the General Staff and intelligence agencies are doing and what he doesn’t want domestic voters or the Trump White House to blame him for.
Instead, he is counting on his spokesman for oligarch capital and Trump bribery, Kirill Dmitriev, to tweet several times a day on the fidelity of Russia as a strategic partner. “As the largest holder of natural resources in the world and a top-3 producer of most commodities, “ according to Dmitriev a few hours ago, “Russia is well positioned for the predicted and emerging Era of Extreme Scarcity.” “Russian energy is indispensable to easing the world’s largest energy crisis. EU bureaucrats will soon be forced to recognize this reality, acknowledge their strategic blunders, and atone.”
To interpret these signals of Russia’s two-track policy in the war against Iran and predict what will happen next, listen to this podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, aired on Tuesday morning.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc8vYcD_dtM
For background to the discussion, here is the evidence:
- Trump Derangement Syndrome (his) as he lifts his 48-hour attack ultimatum:
The crude spelling mistakes were not detected in the first publication, and so 18 minutes elapsed before the White House re-spelled its announcement:
For no apparent reason, seven hours later the same presidential announcement was re-published.
For the originals, go to https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/social/?platform=all&sort=date&sort_order=desc&page=1
- Insider trading associated with Trump’s war tweets:
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/1171d623-3709-4f6e-8ded-a5df4ec57696?syn-25a6b1a6=1
- Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s Five-Point term sheet says: comprehensive peace not a short-term ceasefire; reparations for Iran’s losses; revenge for the assassination of Ali Khamenei; a new regime for the Hormuz Strait; and an end to US bases on Arab territory.
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1981500
- Position-taking by the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesman
March 23: AFP: U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday gave Iran 48 hours until 11:44 pm GMT today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, threatening to obliterate Iranian power plants if they do not. What’s the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s comment on this?
Lin Jian: The conflict in the Middle East is still spreading and spilling over. If the conflict continues to expand and the situation once again escalates, the whole region will be plunged into chaos. Force will only lead to a vicious circle. China strongly calls on parties to the conflict to immediately stop military operations, return to dialogue and negotiation, and not continue the war that should not have happened.”
Reuters: China has told Iran to ensure the safety of its assets and people in Iran. So has China specifically told Iran to ensure the safe passage of its ships and oil bound to China?
Lin Jian: We once again call on parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from causing greater damage to global economic growth. We are in communication with relevant parties to work for the deescalation of the situation.”
March 19: CCTV: It’s reported that Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani was killed in Israeli strikes. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and he have authorized the Israel Defense Forces to kill any Iranian official without the need for additional authorization. What’s China’s comment?
Lin Jian: China is shocked by that remark. China is always against the use of force in international relations. The killing of Iranian leaders and attacks on civilian targets are by no means acceptable. As the conflict rages on in the Middle East and tensions continue to escalate and spill over, the international community is widely calling for an early ceasefire and end to hostilities. China calls on parties to the conflict to immediately stop military operations and prevent plunging the region into chaos.
Xinhua News Agency: We noted that Zhai Jun, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East Issue, recently visited Middle East countries. Could you brief us on his visits?
Lin Jian: As we speak, the conflict is still raging in the Middle East and tensions continue to escalate and spill over. To help calm the situation and bring about peace, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East Issue Zhai Jun visited several countries in the region over the past few days. He met with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Egypt, as well as the Secretaries General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the League of Arab States, and had a phone conversation with Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar for in-depth exchanges of views on the regional situation.
During the visit, Special Envoy Zhai Jun elaborated on China’s position regarding the current situation, and stressed that a ceasefire and an end to the hostilities provide the fundamental solution, and urged parties to the conflict to immediately cease military operations and prevent the situation from becoming a complete chaos. He called for dialogue and negotiation and resolving differences through political and diplomatic means. He pointed out that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be upheld, the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of GCC countries should be fully respected, non-military targets should not be attacked and the safety of shipping lanes should not be interrupted. All parties have commended China’s just position and efforts in promoting peace, and looked to China to play a bigger role.
Special Envoy Zhai Jun’s visit to the Middle East is part of China’s intensive diplomatic mediation effort. China is a responsible major country and a sincere friend of countries in the region. To work for reconciliation and peace in the region is a cornerstone of China’s Middle East policy. Our mediation effort will not cease as long as the conflict continues.”
- The principal suppliers to Israel of crude oil and petroleum products
Source: https://oilchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Behind-the-Barrel-3.pdf
- Iran’s new two-track regime for the Strait of Hormuz
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