by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
“As for the situation in Syria,”, the spokesman for President Vladimir Putin announced on Monday, “violence is taking place there, which cannot but cause our deep concern. This concern is shared in many countries of the world, in international organizations, including the United Nations.” On Tuesday, he added that “Russia supports the stabilization of Syria because of the need to maintain the security of the entire region…Syria is now too explosive a region, which may affect other countries. That is why Russia wants to see Syria prosperous, predictable, and friendly.”
This was stating the obvious. The Kremlin was also not stating a Russian policy.
The Russian Foreign Ministry tried to say more than the obvious. In its statement of March 7, the Ministry explained that “alarmed by the sharp aggravation of the situation in Syria…we call on all authoritative Syrian leaders who can influence the further development of the situation on the ground to do everything possible to end the bloodshed and prevent civilian casualties as soon as possible…We reaffirm our principled position in support of the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic. We hope that all states that have an impact on the situation in Syria will contribute to its normalization. We are committed to close coordination with foreign partners in the interests of the speedy de-escalation of the situation.”
As a policy, this was ambiguous on whether Russia recognizes Ahmed Al-Sharaa as president of the government which has replaced Bashir al-Assad by force. The Ministry term, “authoritative Syrian leaders”, avoids the problem of what the new president’s real name is, since it is suspected that al-Sharaa is not his real family name, nor is it Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, which is a nom de guerre.
The Ministry term is also a plural one, intimating that now, soon or later, Russian policy will recognize other Syrian leaders. These may include Qadri Jamil, a Syrian Kurd, educated in Moscow whose proto-communist political party has been backed by the Russians for more than a decade. This week Jamil was the first Syrian political leader to be received officialy at the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. The communiqué issued by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov indicated Russian support for the Syrian Kurds based primarily in the northeast.
“A discussion was held,” Bogdanov said, “on the development of the situation in Syria, including the tragic events that occurred in the coastal areas of the country. At the same time, special emphasis was placed on the need to establish an inclusive political process with the participation of representatives of all ethno-confessional groups on the basis of initiatives of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 in the interests of ensuring the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic. In this context, the importance of the agreement signed on March 10 in Damascus between the President of the transition period of Syria A.Sharaa and the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces M. Abdi was noted.”
This is a reference to Mazloum Abdi (aka Mazloum Kobane) who has been the head of the Kurdish military forces, and who met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus on March 10; reportedly, they agreed on terms for Kurdish administrative autonomy. Jamil met Bogdanov to brief him the next day. Earlier in Damascus, on January 28, Bogdanov had met with al-Sharaa. The boilerplate of his communiqué indicated that al-Sharaa did not agree to “formalising pertinent arrangements” for the future of the Russian bases at Khmeimim and Tartus, but that the two sides would keep negotiating.
There is no public record that Bogdanov has met with other Syrians between al-Sharaa at the end of January and Jamil this week, following the start of the rebellion. There is also no record of who gave the orders for the opening of the Khmeimim base to the Alawite refugees over the weekend.
For what is happening at the bases in Syria, and Russian policymaking in Syria, listen to the 45-minute discussion with Chris Cook by clicking here:
Source: https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-radio-special-syria-broadcast
Three hours after this broadcast, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, updated the number of refugees at Khmeimim to between 8,000 and 9,000. “The Khmeimim airbase opened its doors to local residents who were looking for salvation from the pogroms,” Zakharova reported. “Our military has sheltered more than 8,000, these are statistics at the time of yesterday, maybe even closer to 9,000 Syrians. I think this is the best answer to the question of our real contribution to the fate of the Syrians.” She did not say what the Russian plan is for their future security.
Asked about the safety of civilians, including Russian citizens, who are in Syria, Zakharova said “the current authorities in Damascus are aware and responsible for ensuring the protection and legitimate rights of all Syrian citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation. We are closely monitoring their efforts to equalize the situation with law and order.” The reference to “the current authorities in Damascus” implies the Russian belief that the current regime may not last.
There have been no official Russian government statements on the situation inside or around the Tartus naval base. According to Italian monitoring website Itamilradar, the submarine Krasnodar has anchored offshore from Tartus, accompanied by the tug Churov.
Source: https://www.itamilradar.com/2025/03/08/here-we-go-again-3/
At the same time, three Russian military cargo vessels are reported to have left the Mediterranean heading home. The locations of several other Navy vessels based at Tartus have not been reported since February 22.
Source: https://russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/
The Russian military blogs have been publishing reports on the rebellion in Latakia for several days, including this press release of March 7: “The Military Council for the Liberation of Syria sets the following goals for itself: 1. Liberation of the entire territory of Syria from the occupiers and terrorist forces. 2. The overthrow of the HTS regime and the dismantling of its repressive sectarian apparatus. 3. Protecting the lives and property of all Syrians. 4. Restoration of state institutions on national and democratic foundations. 5. Preparation for the return of refugees. 6. The creation of a single sovereign state.”
Subsequent reports have come from Boris Rozhin of the Colonel Cassad blog and Mikhail Zvinchuk’s Rybar:
Source: https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin March 10, 16:33
Source: https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin/
Source: https://t.me/s/rybar
According to Syrian reporter Laith Marouf, “Turkish helicopters and drones have been active in coastal Syria providing cover for the Wahhabi Contras during the first two days of the insurgency, they have since limited their air support to drones. There were no Turkish fixed- wing aircraft in active operation. I am not sure what the official Syrian-Russian meetings have led to, but judging from the actions on the ground, Russia has been guaranteed safety for its bases if it limits its actions to only opening its bases to refugees and turns a blind eye to the slaughter outside their fences. Iran is unable to provide any support from the bases: all Iranian military and civilian flights over Syrian and Lebanese airspace have ceased since early February; under threat of being shot down by Israel and US.”
For a detailed situation report by Marouf on March 8, click to view.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McSlwUxbf1k
Marouf reports his evidence on the al-Sharaa family. Wikipedia profiles report evidence on the names, places of birth and family tree of son Ahmed and father Hussein here and here.
For the introduction to this broadcast, for access to the 20-year Gorilla Radio archive, and for Chris Cook’s blog, click here and here.
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